RE: Has Facebook’s Death Spiral Begun

March 1, 2008

I read the article that Dave posted with regards to Facebook’s Death Spiral, which reminded me of two posts I had read.

The first is by Erick Schonfeld, which talks about  how the US users of facebook has leveled off.
 
Erick predicts that the US usage of Facebook has leveled off because of “friend spam”.  This could very well be.  I know personally that my Facebook usage has decreased with becoming bored with the applications that has made Facebook popular.  They were a novelty when I first joined, however like many things people get bored.

Another post, this one by Robert Scoble,  talks about what I has just said.  Boredom.  Also, there has been many people being kicked off of facebook because of dumb reasons.  Scoble talks about a guy in France that was kicked off of facebook for simply messaging his friends.  Now I don’t know if that’s all the guy was doing but still.

In a post by Adam Ostrow, Facebook’s usage in Europe is growing very fast.
 
This could be just because Facebook is just getting caught on in Europe.  So this bags the question.  Will Facebook level off in Europe as well?  Who knows.  There are many things that different cultures embrace that other cultures do not.  The asian community has usually more technologically advanced gadgets than other continents, and then when we finally have it in North America, China/Japan/and Korea already have better gadgets.

So.  Do you think that Facebook will be a thing of the past here in North America? Or globally?

–Jerry 

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11 Responses to “RE: Has Facebook’s Death Spiral Begun”

  1. Tasia Says:

    I definitely think Facebook will soon level off as the current popular choice of social networking and that the leveling off has already begun. Facebook is just acting as another present moment popularity item, does anyone else remember Nanos? They sure lasted. I imagine Facebook will follow the same trend as we see in most children’s toys, become the popular choice, sky rocket to success and then die out. Also like most popular items, it takes time to spread globally, so being that Facebook was invented in the US and has just recently begun to sky rocket in Europe suggests that it will too eventually die out. Who knows, we could be wrong and everyone could still be Facebooking 100 years from now. It just seems highly unlikely.

  2. wattsy Says:

    I agree Tasia, I think in a few years Facebook will definitely start to slow down with the amount of users joining the site. If I owned facebook I think I would have sold it at its peak to the companies who made huge bids for it. As in a few years a decrease in popularity will decrease this web-sites value. I think we will see a shift in the services facebook offers in the next few years, to try to keep increasing its popularity.

  3. davecanvin Says:

    I think that if Facebook’s popularity dies off it will be their own fault.

    I know I am kind of annoyed because I get 10 of these application invites a day. If I wanted to add the “Zombie Killer Application” I would do it myself. Before I liked the simplicity of Facebook, but its gradually turning itself into a mess like Myspace.

  4. jblaquiere Says:

    I agree Mitch. Mark Zuckerberg really really should have sold when it hit its peak. I know know why he thinks Facebook will continue to increase. The thing is that Facebook hit its peak, early into its conception. I took a look into my marketing text to find out what kind of a trend facebook is following. The one that caught my eye was a fad life cycle. In this life cycle popularity/sales increase drastically, then fall at roughly the same rate.

  5. romizuddin Says:

    First time I heard that facebook will die. But I agree with you guys that facebook will die may be not very soon. Just look at Google, when it released we found much better search engine. As a result Altavista and Excite have lost their market eventually died because of google. So the facebook eventually will die same as AltaVista and Excite.

  6. David McKenna Says:

    I agree that Facebook will probably die like everything else has in the past, but first I think there has to be something existing to beat it. Facebook beat MySpace, it didn’t just die on it’s own (at least I don’t think so, I never used it). I don’t think there is anything big enough out there right now to overcome it, so I still don’t think it will die for some time (unless they die internally by going bankrupt).

  7. tag1983 Says:

    My facebook usage has most definitely went down, and it’s not so much that the applications bother me, cause most of my friends know not to send them to me, but it’s that I’m bored with it. Sure I check up on it every once and awhile to see how everyone is doing or when I feel the need to check out “where is he now” for my friends or school mates. Basically I’m bored with the site, but I would hate to see it disappear. I enjoy facebook and think it’s a great resource but for me the initial excitement has faded and now it’s just another site I go see in my bookmarks. It’s no longer something I have to check at least once a day as it was in the beginning. I’m not sure what they could do to change this either. I don’t think Facebook will fall of fast by any means, but I think it’s definitely slowing in growth, in NA any ways, and will most likely level off to a constant amount of users, or a very slow decline. Of course this is just in my group of friends really. I notice a young young generation starting to catch the bug, and older generations are jumping on the wagon, but for at least for my age group I think the thrill has slowed.

    -TAG

  8. jblaquiere Says:

    I have become bored with facebook as well, until a couple days ago when I started adding family to the “My Relatives” app. I’ve found 2nd cousins that i haven’t seen or talked to in 8 years. I’ve even added my great aunt! (I’m suprised she knows how to use the website:))

  9. Katelyn Murnaghan Says:

    I agree with you Jerry..Facebook is fun occassionally but I don’t feel like I have to check it every hour or so like I use to. I think it will turn out like MSN..for me at least. I never use MSN. I’ve used it twice in the past year. I find it so boring but then again, I’m not one to really “play” on computers. I enjoy the fresh outdoors :)

  10. agelliott Says:

    I totally agree Jerry, Facebook is fun occasionally. It’s like every other thing in the world, it’s great until something newer and better comes along. Just like MSN was all of that now who uses it. This all applies except for Coke. The new Coke sucked just like Pepsi sucks.

  11. wattsy Says:

    I think the chart above will probably decrease. But there could be features added to facebook that will attract many new users. Facebook’s name in general is catchy, like Myspace. A lot of other social networking sites are not so catchy like Facebox. I think having a catchy name, as well as the amount of users on the site gives you an edge in this market. There probably will be other popular social networking sites coming out soon – as there is a big market for this.


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